Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to trade below $90,000 since March 7 as the market continues to search for a recovery. Despite the price consolidation, technical indicators still suggest that the trend is bearish.
Bitcoin Whale Activity Surges
On-chain data shows a significant increase in the number of whale wallets – addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC. On March 22, the number of such addresses was 1,980, and it has risen to 1,991 in a short period of time.
The increase of 11 addresses may seem small at first glance, but given the sheer size of these positions, it is a significant signal. Accumulation activity from whales usually means that confidence in Bitcoin is increasing, especially from institutional investors and high net worth individuals.
History shows that when whales accumulate BTC instead of distributing, it is often a sign of bullish market sentiment, while also reducing selling pressure. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could be preparing for a new bull run.
Ichimoku Indicator Shows Bitcoin Still Faces Challenges
Technical analysis with the Ichimoku Cloud shows that BTC is still facing several important resistance levels.
- Kijun-sen (red line): Price is trading just below this level after a sharp decline, indicating that the downtrend has not been broken yet.
- Tenkan-sen (blue line): Below Kijun-sen, further strengthening the short-term bearish momentum.
- Lagging Span (green line): Currently below price and cloud, confirming the negative outlook.
- Kumo (cloud ahead): Bearish, with Senkou Span A (blue line) below Senkou Span B (red line), representing strong resistance ahead.
It is worth noting that the current cloud has a thin structure, which could open up a reversal opportunity if buyers push the price up. However, without enough momentum, Bitcoin is still at risk of continuing its downtrend.
Could Bitcoin return to $88,000 soon?
The exponential moving average (EMA) analysis also shows that the bearish trend is still dominant, as the short-term averages are below the long-term averages.
However, if buyers can regain control, BTC is likely to head towards key resistance levels:
- $85,124 – The first level that needs to be overcome to confirm a recovery signal. - $87,482 – If the bullish momentum continues, this level could be tested.
- $88,839 – This is a key level that marks a possible return to a strong uptrend.
Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to maintain momentum, the price could retest key support levels:
- $81,187 – If this level breaks, the downtrend could continue to extend.
- $79,955 – This is the last strong support level before Bitcoin could see a deeper decline.
Conclusion
The whale data suggests that accumulation is taking place, but technical indicators are still biased to the downside. Bitcoin needs a strong enough momentum to break the current resistance levels, otherwise, the risk of a drop below $80,000 remains present. In the context of an unpredictable market, investors need to closely monitor the movements of whales and factors that greatly affect market sentiment.
