Bitcoin Facing Risk of a Sharp Drop
In a post on the X platform on March 16, Schiff analyzed the correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin. He pointed out that Nasdaq has dropped 12% and if the market continues to enter a bear market, Bitcoin could be hit even harder. Schiff Predicts:
- If Nasdaq Falls 20%, Bitcoin Could Fall to $65,000
- If Markets Crash More Severely, Bitcoin Could Fall as Low as $20,000
Schiff noted that historically, major Nasdaq downturns have been followed by sharp sell-offs in financial markets, including the Dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 crash in 2020.
Gold Rises, Bitcoin Faces Difficulties
According to Schiff, while the Nasdaq has weakened, gold has shown strength, rising 13% since its Nasdaq peak in December 2023. He predicts that if this trend continues and the stock market plummets, gold could surpass $3,800. Bitcoin, on the other hand, will not be as resilient as gold.
Schiff also argued that Bitcoin cannot be a store of value like gold, and questioned whether the US government and states should hold Bitcoin in strategic reserves.
Bitcoin ETF Sell-Off Concerns
Schiff warned that if Bitcoin continues to decline, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could face a major sell-off. He specifically highlighted MicroStrategy (MSTR), a large Bitcoin holder, which may not be able to sell enough BTC to avoid bankruptcy if the selling pressure becomes too great.
Despite his pessimistic predictions, Schiff also admitted that his analysis is not an in-depth study, but rather an observation based on current market data.
Bitcoin Outlook Remains Optimistic
Despite Schiff's warnings, many experts and financial institutions remain confident in Bitcoin's long-term prospects.
- Tim Draper maintains Bitcoin forecast of $250,000 by 2025
- Tom Lee expects Bitcoin to be the best performing asset of the year
- Standard Chartered targets Bitcoin at $500,000
- Michael Saylor even predicts Bitcoin could reach $13 million by 2045
In addition, the interest of lawmakers and governments also boosts market confidence. At the White House Crypto Summit, President Trump pledged to support the industry and proposed the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, creating a more favorable regulatory environment for Bitcoin in the future.
Conclusion
Peter Schiff's forecast raises concerns about the possibility of Bitcoin declining if the Nasdaq continues to decline sharply. However, with the support of large organizations and favorable regulatory policies, Bitcoin still has the potential to grow strongly in the long term. The market will need to closely monitor further developments to accurately assess Bitcoin's trend in the current financial landscape.
